earned run?

[newslane]

Hi....I would appreciate your opinion on a particular play.

Batter one walks.
Batter two flies out.
Batter three reaches on a FC, batter one out at 2nd.
Batter three steals second, then reaches 3rd on a passed ball.
Batter four hits a shallow single to LF, quickly picked up by the left fielder. Batter three scores.
Is the run earned given that batter three was on third because of the passed ball? It's not likely he could have scored from second on the passed ball.
Your opinion would be appreciated. Thank you.

John

[PetroGuy]

MLB Rules 10.16 (d)

No run shall be earned when the scoring runner’s advance has been aided by an
error, a passed ball or defensive interference or obstruction, if in the official scorer’s
judgment the run would not have scored without the aid of such misplay.

Pretty clear that if the run would not have scored without the passed ball, then the run is unearned.

[jcbeckman]

Also depends on rest of the inning. If the next batter up gets a hit, then there's a good chance the run *does* score, and the run becomes earned. So I agree that at *this point* in the inning, the run is unearned, but until the inning os over, you can't say for sure.