Count Outcomes (answered)

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mtowner405
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Count Outcomes (answered)

Post by mtowner405 » Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:47 am

I'm trying to use the Count Outcome stats. If I look at T01 (Total 0-1 Counts), I would expect T01 = (E01+) + (E01-) + (E01*). But for out team, T01 = 42 and the sum of the E01 outcomes is 8. I would expect some difference to account for ROE, etc, but not that much.

Does the E01 outcomes only count what happens on the next pitch? I was hoping it would look at the outcome of the At Bat if our pitcher through a first pitch strike.

John
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OhioTex
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Re: Count Outcomes

Post by OhioTex » Mon Apr 10, 2017 6:06 am

outcomes are positive and negative from the pitcher perspective and are the outcome of the pitch on that count.
(a big difference in your logic to tie out the math, is missing the next pitch that is very often a ball, strike, or foul which is not a Positive, Negative or Neutral outcome. )

the total times in that situation (T##)
Positive Outcome (E##+) for an Out, Strike Out, DT, ERR, FC
Negative Outcome (E##-) for Hit BB HBP
Neutral outcome (###*) for Sac CI

note in above, nothing about the outcome being a Ball or strike or foul
Yes, there is a strike outcome as captured in (S##) (and it covers strikes swinging, called and foul)
but there is not a Ball outcome. you would need to add in balls and strike outcomes to try and Total out as you were trying.
(in writing this, a ball outcome (B##) may be helpful as it is so frequent - Perhaps should post as a user request)

But even with a B## stat, the total may still not always tie out .. for example, if a batter's at bat is not completed (e.g when a runner is out for third out) that is currently not scored as a positive, negative or neutral outcome (though i think a good argument could be made it should be a neutral outcome, it just is not currently in the program.) . not sure what other odd outcomes not captured, never tried to tie this out, but would be minor,

my three cents
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mtowner405
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Re: Count Outcomes

Post by mtowner405 » Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:21 am

Thanks for the reply. That's what I was afraid you'd say. What I'm really after is the result of the At Bat when certain counts are reached. We want to be able to talk to our pitchers about that. As an example, I'd like to show the effect of a first pitch strike vs. a first pitch ball.

I'm always open to learning and maybe the result of the next pitch is important. However, it seems to me that the result of the At Bat is far more important.

Any ideas?

John
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OhioTex
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Re: Count Outcomes (pending user reply back)

Post by OhioTex » Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:28 am

you can do more deep match up and if,then- analysis with add on programs like TrueMedia and Edge HQ but they cost $$.

for a specific at bat, use the scorecard, It is a great tool. it shows the pitch order, and outcome.

for averages, you have that, For X number of batters faced, when you were ahead in the count 0-2, you have x% positive outcomes. y% negative Outcomes. when you were behind in the count 3-0, you had y% negative outcomes. .
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mtowner405
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Re: Count Outcomes (pending user reply back)

Post by mtowner405 » Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:46 am

I have TruMedia...same result. It looks like the outcomes are still all based on what happens the next pitch. I'm far more interested in the result of the at-bat based on what counts you reach.

I appreciate your responses.

John
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OhioTex
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Re: Count Outcomes (pending user reply back)

Post by OhioTex » Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:53 am

I am glad you use true media, pretty neat. I do not have true media or edgeHQ with me at the moment to investigate.

Taking me a bit to process what you are asking for. but think i got it, see below to verify my understanding.

As you said, not in iscore, but You can request . developers may consider it " advanced stats" and leave to third party apps. or may add to their list of ideas for future enhancements.

For clarity

iscore has now, Outcome on next pitch (E## +/-/*)
  • * pitcher had batter 0-1 and had X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral on next pitch
but not Result of At bat (R## +/-/*)
  • * started with first pitch strike, 0-1, and at bat RESULT ended positive/negative/neutral (e.g R01+,R01-, R01*)
permutations (Results of At bat by count)
  • * when starts 0-1, at bat RESULT ended positive/negative/neutral (e.g R01+,R01-, R01*)
    * when get to 0-2, end up X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (R02+,R02-, R02*),
    * when start with a ball, 1-0 Result ends up X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (R10+,R10-, R10*),
    * when start with two ball, 2-0 end up X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (R20+,R20-, R20*),
    * when start with three ball, 3-0 end up X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (R30+,R30-, R30*),
    * when were even 1-1 end up X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (R11+,R11-, R11*),
    * when were ahead 1-2 end up X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (R12+,R12-, R12*),
    * when were behind 2-1 end up X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (R21+,R21-, R21*),
    * when were behind 3-1 end up X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (R31+,R31-, R31*),
    * when were even 2-2 end up X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (R22+,R22-, R22*),
    * when were full 3-2 end up X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (R32+,R32-, R32*),

An variation on this time, would be Results Favorable/negative/neutral by pitch number (RP# +/-/*)
  • 1 pitch at bat X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (RP1+, RP1-, RP1*)
  • 2 pitch at bat X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (RP2+, RP2-, RP2*)
  • 3 pitch at bat X% favorable outcomes and Y% unfavorable and z% neutral (RP3+, RP3-, RP3*)
  • etc. etc. etc.
  • 12
  • 13+
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mtowner405
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Re: Count Outcomes (pending user reply back)

Post by mtowner405 » Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:05 pm

Bingo! Your R## stats are what we'd like to see. If there were a 3rd party analysis app, I would be happy to get it. I looked at edgeHQ and it looks more like a competitive score-keeping app to iScore than a separate 3rd party analysis tool. I don't see how to use it to do analysis on my iScore data. Am I missing something?

John
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Re: Count Outcomes (pending user reply back)

Post by FTMSupport » Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:12 pm

If you contact EdgeHQ about iScore support they have it as an option. See this link: http://www.edgehq.com/iscore.php
Check out the new iScore Baseball documentation page!
Includes videos and user manual.
http://iscoresports.com/baseball/training.php#docs
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OhioTex
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Re: Count Outcomes (pending user reply back)

Post by OhioTex » Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:09 pm

EdgeHQ is more advance analysis than scorkeeper app. Imho More collegiate and higher type stuff. not inexpensive. The limited interaction i have had with them, was positive and good people.
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