Questioning iScores Earned Run Calculation on Inning Reconstruction (answered)

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Kiwillia
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Questioning iScores Earned Run Calculation on Inning Reconstruction (answered)

Postby Kiwillia » Tue Mar 07, 2017 6:38 pm

I am experiencing a similar issue. Here's how the inning went down.

1st batter - strikes out
2nd batter (Nichols) - ROE and advances to 2nd base on E9
3rd batter (Hamilton) - single and advances to 2nd on E9; Nichols scores on same error
4th batter (Williamson) - walked
5th batter - U3; Hamilton advances to 3rd; Williamson advances to 2nd
6th batter - HR; Hamilton (single) and Williamson (walked) score

Pitching stats for this pitcher:
R - 4 (one from previous inning that belonged to previous pitcher)
RA - 3
ER - 0
ERA - 0.00
FIP - 15.850
K - 1
Hits - 2
BB - 1

Any ideas why it shows 0 ER?
Thanks in advance.
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OhioTex
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Re: Unearned runs not counting

Postby OhioTex » Tue Mar 07, 2017 7:30 pm

@kiwillia

Zero earned runs is correct for what you described.

(i moved this topic to its own thread, because your question is a straight earned run calculation question and unrelated to the 'R COUNT' issue in previous thread at viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11608 )

It is hard to diagnose earned/unearned calculations from a distance and with out seeing full game context. (In fact you did not provide the third out in the half inning ). but let me take a stab.

Given what you provided, i agree w iscore, NO earned runs. Here is why, the goal of earned run / unearned runs is to reconstruct the inning without errors and passed balls, based on what you provided, this is how I would have reconstruct the inning and assess the earned/unearned runs manually.....

    batter 1 = "out 1".
    batter 2, "should have been out #2" . Nichols reached by error and so his run, if he scores, would never be earned.
    Batter 3 and 4 got on base but did not score before Batter 5 got out by U3. Batter 5 would have been the 3rd out of inning.
    Batter 5, Since batter 5 would have been the third out (U3), no runs from batter 5 would be earned had any scored.
    batter 6, Had 3 RBIs, but all are unearned, because they occurred after the third out should have been, batter 6 should have never gotten to bat that inning.
Kiwillia
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Re: Why zero earned runs

Postby Kiwillia » Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:03 am

Thank you for the explanation, OhioTex.
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Jaskegreen
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Re: Why zero earned runs

Postby Jaskegreen » Fri Apr 07, 2017 10:28 am

So I'm going to switch this for a minute, because I think iScore may have assigned an earned run when it shouldn't have. Here's the scenario:

Batter 1 hits a single and holds up at 1st
Batter 1 advances to 3rd on a throwing error from the pitcher in an attempt to pick off Batter 1
Batter 2 hits a Sac Fly to center field, Batter 1 scores
Batter 3 flys out to right field
Batter 4 gets a base hit and holds at 1st
Batter 5 strikes out swinging

When reconstructing the inning without the error, Batter 1 would likely never make it home. According to MLB Rule 9.16, Batter 1's score should be an Unearned Run. iScore calculates it as an Earned Run.

Thoughts? Suggestions?
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OhioTex
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Re: Why zero earned runs

Postby OhioTex » Fri Apr 07, 2017 11:35 am

As we know iScore gets earned runs correct MOST of the time but clearly can not reconstruct like a human

I will walk through my thinking, but will quickly devolve, to not there to see to judge. how deep is Sac to center? how far is fly out to RF? Where was the 2 out base hit place? only being there can judge.

Here is how i reconstructed.. ..
Batter 1 hits a single and holds up at 1st

Batter 1 advances to 3rd on a throwing error from the pitcher in an attempt to pick off Batter 1

Batter 2 hits a Sac Fly to center field, Batter 1 scores
(could Assume B1 would be at 2, 1 out,
But one could argue stuck at first, would have to see live to be fair judge if worth an advance or not..
)

Batter 3 flys out to right field
(if at 2, Assume B1 advances to third,
again could argue was stuck at 1 and gets to 2nd, but on a fly to right may still be at 1.. would have to see live to be fair judge)



Batter 4 gets a base hit and holds at 1st
(if at third, runner B1 scores,, but if Runner at 2nd Would he have been able to score from 2 on a 2out base hit - depends on where hit. again - would only be able to judge if saw. . but that is two ways he may have scored. Yes he could have been at 1 and only advance to 2 too.

Batter 5 strikes out swinging
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Jaskegreen
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Re: Why zero earned runs

Postby Jaskegreen » Fri Apr 07, 2017 12:23 pm

OhioTex wrote:As we know iScore gets earned runs correct MOST of the time but clearly can not reconstruct like a human

I will walk through my thinking, but will quickly devolve, to not there to see to judge. how deep is Sac to center? how far is fly out to RF? Where was the 2 out base hit place? only being there can judge.

Here is how i reconstructed.. ..
Batter 1 hits a single and holds up at 1st

Batter 1 advances to 3rd on a throwing error from the pitcher in an attempt to pick off Batter 1

Batter 2 hits a Sac Fly to center field, Batter 1 scores
(could Assume B1 would be at 2, 1 out,
But one could argue stuck at first, would have to see live to be fair judge if worth an advance or not..
)
It was shallow center, runner would have stayed at 1st.


Batter 3 flys out to right field
(if at 2, Assume B1 advances to third,
again could argue was stuck at 1 and gets to 2nd, but on a fly to right may still be at 1.. would have to see live to be fair judge)

Fly out to shallow right-center field, runner would have had to stay at 1st.


Batter 4 gets a base hit and holds at 1st
(if at third, runner B1 scores,, but if Runner at 2nd Would he have been able to score from 2 on a 2out base hit - depends on where hit. again - would only be able to judge if saw. . but that is two ways he may have scored. Yes he could have been at 1 and only advance to 2 too.
Batter 1 would have advanced to 2nd.

Batter 5 strikes out swinging
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OhioTex
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Re: Why zero earned runs

Postby OhioTex » Fri Apr 07, 2017 7:01 pm

Given your description, Sounds like you answered your own question of why you should override the iscore earned run assumption.
Oregonmike
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Re: Questioning iScores Earned Run Calculation on Inning Reconstruction (answered)

Postby Oregonmike » Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:59 am

Isn't the reason that this was scored an earned run was because the original error was on the pitcher? Shouldn't this be thought of similar to wild pitches and passed balls ? Let's say instead of an error on the pitcher through a pickoff attempt it was a wild pitch that got the runner to third. Because it was a wild pitch on the pitcher the run scoring on a sac fly would still be earned. Now if the runner got to third on a passed ball then I think it puts the run scored in the unearned category. So the point or question does it matter who committed the error? It seems to matter in case of WP or PB so would it be the same thinking with an error? If not then it seems that iScore can only be programmed with the assumption that the runner would have advanced each time on fly ball out tag up situation. It can't be expected to know if it was hit far enough to advance the runner
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OhioTex
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Re: Questioning iScores Earned Run Calculation on Inning Reconstruction (answered)

Postby OhioTex » Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:46 pm

a pitcher error , e.g. over throw of first, is an error, like any other scored error. it would be taken out of the re construct the inning like any other error, even though it was the Pitcher fault. (just the way the rule book written, there is no exception on pitcher errors like there is for WP)
Oregonmike
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Re: Questioning iScores Earned Run Calculation on Inning Reconstruction (answered)

Postby Oregonmike » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:32 pm

Thanks for clarifying

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